Monthly Archives: March 2018

Traitors in the Mist

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This just in: Shhhhhh….if you look quietly, you can see them.  They are very quiet; hoping to not be noticed by the outside world.  They go about their business of picking away at the American Democracy.  They are….Traitors in the Mist.

Trump is a traitor.  It is my belief that Trump (and family) are being blackmailed by Russia to protect a decades long money laundering scheme.  If you’ve read my blog over the years…you know I am rarely wrong on such things.

Let’s just look at the last 24 hours…

  1. An ex spy from Russia is poisoned in the UK
  2. The UK blames Russia for the poisoning.
  3. Tillerson blames Russia for the poisoning.
  4. Trump fires Tillerson.

Trump has failed to implement sanctions on Russia for election meddling in spite of a nearly unanimous push to do so from Congress.

Trump never admits Russia meddled in elections.  Instead he says, “It could be Russia or China or a bunch of other players.”  He just said the same thing about who poisoned the UK ex spy.

Trump is not the only traitor…

Mitch McConnell was told about Russian meddling by Obama before the election.  Not wanting to interfere with the election outcome, unfairly, Obama asked McConnell to help put out a joint statement about the meddling.  McConnell refused thus allowing the interference to continue.

The Republican Congress has passed a budget that decimates our healthcare system and creates monstrous debts all in order to give huge tax cuts to the richest people in the country.  They then, almost immediately, announced plans to go after Social Security and Medicare to pay for those huge tax cuts.

I could go on and on.  However, why bother.

Those that want to see the traitors have no trouble doing so.

Those that don’t….see nothing.

Up, up and away…

Jim

When Math Lies

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This just in:  I had a friend mention that she didn’t think gun research would work due to two reasons: (1) It would take too long and (2) people would still choose sides on the research results.

My less-than-clever retort was “2+2 will always equal 4”.

Then, I thought about this some more and decided there were times were math could be used to fool you.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

A political example.…

Newt Gingrich said, a month after Obama took over the presidency that “There are more people on food stamps than at any other time in history.”  Newt was right.

However…

The implication is that in a single month, Obama was responsible for every single person on food stamps.  What had actually happened was that the economy crashed at the end of the Bush administration.  It was continuing to sink for the first few months of Obama’s administration.  So, under Bush, a record was set for people on food stamps.  As soon as Obama took over, and one more person signed up for food stamps..a new record was set.

So, one person signing up for food stamps under Obama allowed Newt to rightfully say what he said.

A non-political example…

Suppose a drug company has a new product; an antidepressant called drug XYZ.  The FDA will only approve use of this drug if there are 3 successful trials showing this drug can outperform a placebo.  So, the drug company runs 100 trials.  In 80 of those trials, the drug does no better than a placebo.  In 17 of those trials, the placebo actually outperforms the drug.  In 3 trials, the drug outperforms the placebo.

The drug company then throws out 97 of the trials that didn’t give them the results they wanted.  Instead, they publish the 3 trials out of 100 that seemed to show their drug worked.

The FDA approves this because the 3 trial standard has been met.

A stock market example…

A broker sends out 100,000 texts.  In half of these he recommends buying stock in company XYZ as it will increase in value during the year.  In the other half of these, he recommends the exact opposite saying that the company will decrease in value next year.

Unless the company stock does not change at all, this broker will be right in half of his texts.

Next year, he does it again.  However, this time, he only sends the texts to the 50,000 that got the right recommendation last year.  He claims “I was right last year!”  In the new text, he has another company but dhe sends the say 50/50 recommendation; half say “buy” and half say “sell”.

Again, at the end of the year, half of these texts will be correct.

This means that 25,000 have gotten texts that accurately predicted the market.

He does this over an over; sending out 25,000 (50% buy and 50% sell) and now 12,500 will get the right recommendation. This is 12,500 that have only seen texts from this broker that have been 100% correct.

Every year he has a smaller pool to send to. Every year, half will get good recommendations and every year, half think he is a genius….even though he is wrong half the time.

Why is this?

Those that get bad recommendations are dropped from his mailing list.  Those that get good recommendations have no idea about the 50% that got bad recommendations.

Math counts and 2+2 will always equal 4.  However, we can all be fooled; especially when we are hearing what we want to hear.

Up, up and away…

Jim

Putin owns Trump…

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This just in:  Before I get into the Putin/Trump thing…let’s just notice that the “Guns Killing Kids” issue has started to abate.  So now the NRA and Republican Party can get back to raking in Russian money.

As for Trump…

I have often wondered, possibly as often as several times a day….”How is it possible that Trump so consistently does the EXACT OPPOSITE of the right thing….every time he does anything?”

Could it be that he and I are exact opposites?  Possible, but it seems that we would agree on something every now and then.

But we never do…ever.

There is a reason for this that was recently divulged to Mueller who is investigating Trump.

It turns out that Putin told Trump not to make Romney his Secretary of State.  He wanted someone more friendly to Russia like Tillerson (Who Russia awarded with some sort of Best Friends Forever award).  Russia wanted someone that would help Trump NOT IMPLEMENT SANCTIONS.

Tillerson got the job.  Sanctions have not been implemented and Tillerson continues to cut away at the State Department; taking steps daily to ensure it is weaker than the day before.

So…was this the only thing Putin said.  Did it go like this “Just make Tillerson the Secretary of State and we’ll forget all about the decades you have worked with us to launder money.”  Is that what happened?

Or is Putin telling Trump daily “Do what I say or spend the rest of your life in jail.”

If I were Putin….I would want would love a trade war between the United States and the rest of the world.  I would love a U.S. president that praises Russia and refused to implement sanctions.  I would want a president that would not investigate Russian meddling in elections.

If I were Putin I would want turmoil in the White House.  I would want others in the White House that also launder money like Kushner so my reach would broaden.

I’d want a W.H. that would destroy the U.S. economy through unfathomably bad tax plans and budgets.  I would want divisive issues to be flamed; things like immigration and gun control.

I could go on and on but it is clear to me that either Trump is completely under Putin’s control or there are a heck of a lot of coincidences going on.

It is worth noting that our Constitution protects us from this by balancing power between the Executive, Judicial and Legislative branches.  Out Founding Fathers, however, didn’t count on the possibility that a foreign power would control both the Presidency and Congress.  By Congress I mean, the Republican Party.

My prediction is that Democrats will take the house and senate in the midterms.  Mueller will finish his investigation and Trump will be impeached.  Trump will then refuse to step down.

What happens after that will be up to our generals.

Up, up and away…

Jim