This just in: Right now, Putin is angry. He grossly miscalculated how the war with Ukraine was going to go and now he desperately needs to find a way to get out of the mess he created without seeming to have not won.

I think it’s time for me to give my take on the war.

First of all, I can’t overstate how impressed I am by the Ukrainian will to fight for their country. Their president is an inspiration that will quite possibly grow if the Russian dare to take him out.

Russia appears to have made the following bad assumptions:

1. Trump would be in power and thus, allow Russia to do whatever it wanted. Trump would have pulled the U.S. from NATO by now.
2. The world would have treated the invasion much as they treated the Crimea annexation. The simpler, safer thing would be for everyone to just ignore what Russia was doing.
3. A fast overthrow would have meant that supply lines would be far less important. Instead, the war is dragging on and fuel/food for the attacking forces is simply not ready.
4. Somehow, the Russian people would go on believing that Nazis had taken over poor Ukraine and Putin needed to go in an save them.
5. The Ukrainian forces would not be willing nor equipped to put up much of a resistance.

Had Putin’s assumptions been correct, he could have added a huge country to his own domain with very little effort.

However he was wrong on every single assumption.

I have a few other opinions:

1. We, NATO, should not put in a no-fly zone. To do this, we would have to enforce it. This would mean engaging Russian forces in the air and on the ground. This would include taking out long-range surface to air missiles inside of Russia. This means war.
2. A war with Russia will mean the use of nuclear weapons. This is a war where no one wins.
3. Giving planes to Ukraine is a bad idea. First of all, they are Russian MIG-29’s which the Russians will have no trouble shooting down. Secondly, hand held surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons are plentiful. Use these.
4. The U.S. embargo of Russian oil is symbolic and thus important.
5. The President of the United States has no impact on the cost of gas. There are plenty of oil leases (thousands) already approved so if the oil companies want to drill for oil, they can.
6. Fox News appears to be an arm of the Russian propaganda machine. There are people in Russia that think Putin is fighting Nazis. They think this because their only source of news is Russian TV. In the states, we have much the same issue where people only get their news from FOX and thus, are fans of Putin.
7. Republicans did the following: (1) Claimed that Biden was making up stories about a Russian invasion of Ukraine and (2) After the invasion began they claimed we weren’t prepared. These are the same Republicans that turned their heads when Trump tried to extort Ukraine by holding back promised weapons; resulting in the first Trump impeachment.

I think there is little doubt that the government in Ukraine will fall. Putin has too many weapons. This does not mean that the war will be over. I think it could be years of fighting before eventually, one side will give up. My hope is that Putin’s own people turn against him.

Now for a music video…

Time to save the world.

Up, up and away…

Jim